A Sense of Place

What if your home town were a canyon? This past spring a Navajo guide led my family on a hike through the Canyon de Chelly in Arizona. (The New York Times today has an article and nice slide show featuring it.) Our guide had grown up in the canyon and he still has family down there. He said his family has lived in the canyon for 500 years.

It made me wonder what it must be like to call a place like that canyon your ancestral home. Those of us who know something of our ancestry might be able to trace our family back to “the old country,” perhaps some village in Europe or maybe Asia.

My own family has ro0ts in Poland, Russia and Romania. My maternal grandfather came from Czernowitz in Romania (now part of Ukraine). I’ve never been back, but I suspect if I had, with the passage of time, the changing of borders and the destruction and construction of buildings and roads, what I would find would not be recognizable to my grandfather who was born there.

Part of my wife’s family comes from Castinatelli, Italy, which lies about 100 kilometers south of Salerno in the hills. We had the opportunity to visit Castinatelli some years ago. We met my wife’s 97-year-old great aunt who still lived there, walked the cobblestone streets and saw the ancestral family home, made of stone blocks and situated at the edge of a small piazza with well. The house is empty now; the current generation has moved up the hill to more modern digs.

It was a special privilege to walk amid the old country. Even if it wasn’t my own, I felt a connection to it.

My visit to Canyon de Chelly, where Navajo families have lived for 500 years, put the idea of the old country in different perspective for me. There is not much in the way of ancestral buildings down in the canyon. I think the Navajo’s primary tie has been to the land itself, to the 600-foot canyon walls, the river running along canyon floor, the pattern of sunlight and darkness that pass through the canyon as the sun crosses the sky. And apart from an invasion of non-native plants that has occurred over the last 50 years or so, the canyon looks just the way it did 500 years ago.

How powerful, looking upon the same home your ancestors did some 500 years ago, built not by human hands but the forces of nature, in geologic time. How powerful, that sense of place.

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Defining Personal Gain: How Traders Are Different

Image representing New York Times as depicted ...
Image via CrunchBase

The New York Times today carried an a article about government moves to impose restrictions on the practice of “flash trading,” in which deep-pocketed and tech-savvy investment firms deploy millions of dollars of computing power to gain what some say is an unfair advantage in the financial markets.

As interesting as this phenomenon is, what really caught my eye is the reporting. According to the article, “All of the traders spoke on the condition of anonymity, because they did not see any personal gain in speaking publicly.”

Except for people seeking to sway public opinion or would-be experts building their brands, why should anyone ever speak to a journalist on the record? Yet so many do.

The Dark Lining of Cloud Computing: A Response to Jonathan Zittrain

In his New York Times Op-Ed today, Jonathan Zittrain raises valid concerns about the risks to users of cloud-based computing services, including betrayal, lock-in and limited privacy protections. And his recommendations for addressing those weaknesses are sound. “But,” he writes, “the most difficult challenge–both to grasp and to solve–of the cloud is its effect on our freedom to innovate.”

Image representing Facebook as depicted in Cru...
Image via CrunchBase

Are Facebook and the iPhone platforms that will cripple innovation with the restrictions they impose on developers? To a degree the limits to innovation Zittrain cites are real; but innovation is but one value offered by those companies, which are as much marketing channels as they are platforms. Low-cost marketing is another. And what Apple and Facebook may limit in the former dimension, they may compensate for–at least in the minds of some developers–in the other.

Zittrain’s idea that the “legacy of the personal computer is that anyone can write code for it and give or sell that code to you” is true, but it doesn’t reckon that today many businesses see marketing challenges at least as compelling as technological ones. With consumer technology prices on a relentlessly downward march, business models depend on mass distribution. Low-cost marketing is essential and many are willing to trade away some freedom to innovate for cheaper marketing.

A company that seeks to play a leadership role as a platform provider will need to innovate and foster innovation among its partners and developers, or else it will become irrelevant over time. As Annabelle Gawer and Michael Cusumano wrote in “Platform Leadership,” their study of the platform phenomenon at companies such as Intel, Microsoft and Cisco in the technology industry, “Platform leaders and complementary innovators have great incentives to cooperate … because their combined efforts can increase the potential size of the pie for everyone.” (P.6)

In technology, too, there can be declining returns to innovation. At the dawn of the era of microprocessors, the focus of competition and innovation was on hardware architecture. The fact that in the PC world competition narrowed to a small handful of hardware players may have slowed innovation (this is debatable) but it allowed those players to achieve economies of scale and allowed the rest of the ecosystem to enjoy the benefits of a near-commodity platform. Competition-driven innovation moved up the stack to software.

Competition was fierce on the lower level of the software stack–the operating system–until things settled down, competitors largely fell away and the market consolidated to a handful of players. Competition and innovation once again moved up the stack to applications.

Google’s announcement that it intends to release a general-purpose operating system isn’t so much an attempt to compete in the operating system market but rather to seal the fate of operating systems as a commodity, and shift the focus of innovation to the cloud, where it hopes to become a platform leader. It and the others will only succeed, however, if they foster enough innovation to grow the markets they are playing in.

Should the market leaders act as a drag on innovation, new arrivals will surely emerge with innovations that will lead the market forward.

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If You Need Flanges

Folks, I don’t know about this as a business opportunity, but it’s worth considering as a supplier of flanges. Just received it this morning.


Welcome,

If you have access to a computer, and have up to three hours spare time per-week. you can get paid, would you like to work part or full time online, and get paid weekly? If yes,then please read carefully.
_____________________________________________________________________
ABOUT US
______________________________________________________________________
Established in 2001, Dalian Bolong Trade & Product is a specialized manufacturer of forged flanges. Our company located in the beautiful coastal city of Dalian and is only eight kilometers away from Dalian Port. So the advantage of this proximity can cut down on shipping costs for you.
______________________________________________________________________
JOB POSITION
_______________________________________________________________________
We are currently seeking part or full time employees for our ever-growing Accounts Receivable Department. Through extensive demographic research, we have discovered a wealth of untapped human resources that, for one reason or another, need the freedom to work from home. If this sounds like you, please read on, and consider becoming part of our company family.
Note that no form of investment of is needed from you and this job will take only 1-3 hours of your time per week.
______________________________________________________________________
JOB RESPONSIBILITY
_______________________________________________________________________
The position of Accounts Receivable officer entails the following duties: coordinate payments from our clients, receive payments which come in form of certified checks or united states postal money orders, process payments at your local bank, and forward 90% of funds received to the proper branch office, as instructed. The remaining 10% is your wage. Since this position is need-based, you will have plenty of free time while enjoying a good income.
_______________________________________________________________________
REMUNERATION
_______________________________________________________________________
Every assignment in form of payment received from clients, you’re entitled to 10% which excludes the cost of processing western union to any regional office accountant ________________________________________________________________________
INTERESTED APPLICANTS (HOW TO APPLY)
________________________________________________________________________
Interested applicants should reply with full name, full residential address, phone numbers, and email address, so that one of our Human Resource Managers can contact you through email, with an approval letter if the management decides youre a successful candidate. Please specify the best way to contact you in your reply email.
We appreciate your interest in Dalian Bolong Trade & Product Co. Ltd.
Ms Yu, Qianqian
General Manager,
Dalian Bolong Trade & Product Co. Ltd
42-1-1 Fanglin Park, Xinan Rd.,
Ganjingzi, Dalian, Liaoning
China 116033
Tel: (86 411) 8671 9027
Fax: (86 411) 8671 9027

Mainstream Media is 2.5 Hours Ahead of Blogs, and Why We Don’t Want to Know This

A recent paper by researchers at Cornell and Stanford confirmed what media watchers have observed over the last few years: the blogosphere tends to pick up topics covered in the mainstream media and keep them in circulation. And the reverse is occasionally true: sometimes topics acquire momentum in blogs before becoming important in mainstream media. The publication of the paper was reported today in the New york Times.

As the paper acknowledges, this general description of the interaction between blogs and mainstream media is nothing new. The authors have brought some rigor to the study of this media phenomenon, though, by building analytical tools that can quantify some characteristics of the news cycle. The researchers found, for example, that the usage of a given phrase tends to peak in mainstream online media some 2.5 hours before it peaks in blogs.

It’s a good study, and it’s backed up by some pretty cool tools that the researchers developed to identify common phrases and their variants, like “lipstick on a pig,” that serve as “signatures” for certain stories, and track and timestamp them as they appear across an giant set of online media. They can even identify which media outlets tend to lead the pack in picking up on stories before they become popular elsewhere. (Top two: hotair.com and talkingpointsmemo.com.)

The study even found a simple formula to describe and predict editorial judgement. The researchers found that “news sources imitate each other’s decisions about what to cover, but subject to recency effects penalizing older content.”

Nice. But I have a problem with all of this. First off, I don’t think that news organizations and blogs can harness the insights that flow from such a tool for any sustained benefit. It’s not obvious that publications that lead the news cycle can aggregate a larger audience or generate more advertising revenue than other sites.

Worse, I fear that a fine-grained understanding the news cycle will do more harm than good. Such tools have always been embraced by spinmeisters seeking to influence the news cycle. As these tools get better they become part of an influence arms race in which no one wins. All sides compete to control the news cycle, and achieve little more than the destruction of news, yielding no benefit to the public or the the civic function the news media is intended to serve.

This reminds me of a recent article by Cornell economist Robert H. Frank. Frank challenges the conventional wisdom, flowing from Adam Smith’s notion of the “invisible hand,” that greed and competition end up producing the greatest good for all. On the contrary, competition can be wasteful and destructive, in economic systems and in the natural world. Frank suggests that the natural selection described by Darwin is a better framework for describing economic behavior than the invisible hand.

The central theme of Darwin’s narrative was that competition favors traits and behavior according to how they affect the success of individuals, not species or other groups. As in Smith’s account, traits that enhance individual fitness sometimes promote group interests. For example, a mutation for keener eyesight in hawks benefits not only any individual hawk that bears it, but also makes hawks more likely to prosper as a species.

In other cases, however, traits that help individuals are harmful to larger groups. For instance, a mutation for larger antlers served the reproductive interests of an individual male elk, because it helped him prevail in battles with other males for access to mates. But as this mutation spread, it started an arms race that made life more hazardous for male elk over all. The antlers of male elk can now span five feet or more. And despite their utility in battle, they often become a fatal handicap when predators pursue males into dense woods.

Frank notes that elk would be better off if they could agree to limit the size of their antlers. They can’t. But humans sometimes can come to such agreements, and would be better off if they did. “Individual and group interests are almost always in conflict when rewards to individuals depend on relative performance, as in the antlers arms race,” Frank writes.

So I see advances such as the study by the folks at Cornell and Stanford in a negative light. If only we could just not go there, I think we’d all be better off.

What do you think?

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Walking Everywhere in New York

I live on the Upper West Side of Manhattan. I can walk almost everywhere I go. It’s almost a pre-industrial lifestyle. And I love it.

The Upper West Side and Central Park as seen f...
Image via Wikipedia

Here are some of the places I’ve walked to from my home in recent years:

  • A wedding
  • A funeral
  • A bris
  • A bar mitzvah
  • work
  • my kids’ school
  • the opera
  • the movies
  • out to dinner
  • a picnic in the park
  • with 12 kids home from a birthday party three miles away in Union Square, stopping after dark to play in the fountain at Columbus Circle
  • grocery shopping
  • shopping of all kinds
  • music lessons for the kids (both teachers live in our building)
  • dinner parties
  • making the rounds to the homes of a half dozen friends on New Year’s Eve (when we had babysitting and they did not), carrying a jug of homemade punch
  • the river, to go kayaking
  • the park to watch my son’s soccer game
  • the dance studio for ballet classes
  • a Broadway show–or home from one
  • a job interview
  • a TV interview with CNN (mass transit was on strike, but the CNN studios in the TimeWarner building are just  a mile from my home)
  • a doctor’s appointment
  • Shakespeare in the park
  • the Metropolitan Museum of Art, Museum of Modern Art, American Museum of Natural History
Reblog this post [with Zemanta]There is something special about being able to live your life on foot.

Costly Regulations Welcomed by Business

Certainty has value. Sometimes it’s more attractive to have your costs increase by predictable amount than stay the same. It is if you face uncertainty about whether and how much your costs might someday rise. This is the principle behind two recent examples of business leaders welcoming the bad news of higher costs because it was accompanied by certainty.

First came new U.S. federal fuel-efficiency standards.  Automakers have long fought attempts to impose higher fuel efficiency standards. Opponents of these new standards cite the costs of complying as a key reason that they are a terrible idea that will harm car companies and consumers. Yet the automakers have accepted these new rules and seem, publicly at least, downright pleased with them. True, GM and Chrysler make feel indebted to the federal government for its efforts to save them. But the automakers also recognize that a single, certain, national mileage standard is better than the unpredictability and confusion of competing state standards.

“GM is fully committed to this new approach,” said CEO Fritz Henderson in a statement  “GM and the auto industry benefit by having more consistency and certainty to guide our product plans.” (Quoted in CNET.)

Even Ford, which so far has not received government support, has also embraced the standards, according to a recent report:

“We are pleased that President Obama is taking decisive and positive action as we work together toward one national standard for vehicle fuel economy and greenhouse gas emissions that will be good for the environment and the economy,” Ford said in a statement.

The certainty/cost dynamic is also in evidence in the run up to the climate change summit planned for this December in Copenhagen. There is no doubt that complying with new emissions regulations will impose costs on applicable industries and companies. But a recent article in the Wall Street Journal emphasized business leaders’ desire for certainty over avoiding the costs of new regulations. According to the article: “Chiefs of some of the world’s largest companies are urging global leaders to cut a strong deal this December to curb pollution, saying they need certainty on emissions targets to be able to make long-term investment decisions.”

While businesses will always want to minimize their costs, they also care about the predictability of their operating environment and the levelness of the playing field. These two examples show how how a political process can change the playing field in a way that is good for business and society.

What do you think?

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Why Review Bing?

What’s the point of writing a user review of Bing, Microsoft’s new Internet search engine? It’s free, instantly available to anyone with a Web browser, and user’s own experiences with it are really the only factor determining whether they will use it.

I can see the point of reviewing a product or a Broadway show: it educates consumers so they can decide whether to spend money on the thing or the experience. I can almost even see the point of reviewing one-time concerts the next day, even though it’s too late for consumers to see them: it might spark interest in the artist for the next time. At the high end, also, art criticism can make a profound statement about art, even if that statement doesn’t influence a purchase decision. (Tech criticism, I find, rarely makes profound statements, though.)

Microsoft will spend $100 million promoting Bing. Most consumers will have plenty of opportunity to encounter the brand and enticements to engage with it.

Does today’s a review of Bing in the Wall Street Journal serve any real purpose?

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Uncertainty of Audience and Optional Response: the Appeal of Social Media

Part of what makes participating in social media so fun is the fact that you never know whether you will get a response to what you post. Indeed, you can’t be sure if what you post is ever really read. A Tweet could yield a flurry of responses or silence. A post on Facebook could elicit comments from friends or not. While we expect or hope to be seen and heard, a response from our network or audience is optional and makes the experience that much more gratifying.

The earliest form of human communication, I would speculate as someone who does not

Mastodon
Image via Wikipedia

run the risk of being mistaken for an anthropologist, was real-time, face-to-face and likely to involve a response from whomever was being communicated to: grunting, gesturing, battering with a mastodon thighbone.

Also very early, though, was communication in which no response was expected. One-sided communication was directed at deities, the departed and possibly future generations, exemplified by practices such as shamanism, ancestor worship, temple sacrifice and prayer. Often there was a hope of a response but not an expectation. And who knew if you were being heard?

1896 Telephone, hand cranked magneto on right ...
Image via Wikipedia

More modern forms of communication, such as letters, telegraph, telephone up to e-mail, whether real-time or delayed, carry with them the expectation of a reader and often a response. (As a user of e-mail back in the early days, I remember when e-mails rarely included a salutation, such as “Dear John”; or a closing, like “Best regards, Floyd”; because the sender and recipient were apparent from the message header, and, in the days of closed networks and limited e-mail adoption, the two parties generally knew each other well.  It was the arrival of newbies who drove the adoption of salutations and closings. It was they too who motivated the use of the term “e-mail” over simply  “mail.” Original e-mail users knew what they meant by “mail.” See this humorous early attempt at codifying e-mail etiquette at the company I worked, which was the first to register a .com domain name.)

Adrian Chan, a “social interaction design specialist” calls this diminished expectation of  response the “improbability of communication.”

The improbability of communication, and even the uncertainty of audience, has catalyzed, in social media, an explosion of activity and creativity, as individuals unleash their inner graffit artist, epigrammatist, pundit, evangelist and prophet, while electrifying media companies and marketers to the risks and opportunities of participating in this probabilistic medium.

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How to Design Survey Questions

I learned a lot at JupiterResearch, were I was president until we sold to Forrester Research last year. I think I’m going to share some of what I learned on this blog.

One thing I learned is how to design a good survey.  Surveys can be expensive. Some companies spend millions of dollars a year on survey research. With budgets tightening everywhere, it’ s worth learning how to make the most of your survey budget.

It’s not hard to find good basic information on the best practices of survey design and even the design of specific questions. What I found at Jupiter, though, is knowing how to ask a question is not the same as knowing what and whom to ask.

Business Purpose Determines the Relevant Survey Population

Survey data ultimately serves the needs of business people in a few basic ways. Surveys can help identify market opportunities,  define products and services or shape marketing programs. For these purposes, surveys of customers work best. Surveys can reveal customers’ likes and dislikes, their influences, attitudes, behaviors and level of awareness and adoption of products, services or ideas–the raw material of marketing.

Surveys can also help with general business planning. For business decisions on everything from setting revenue targets to defining IT budgets, companies find it help to know what similar companies are doing.  For these purposes, surveys of executives at those companies work best. How much are companies my size spending on e-business infrastructure and applications? How do companies in my industry allocate their online advertising budget between search and display advertising? These questions can be answered by means of an executive survey.

Three Questioning Tactics

Broadly speaking, a survey question can be used in one of three ways. It’s important to be clear which of these ways each question on your survey will be used:

  1. hypothesis testing
  2. trending and tracking
  3. segmentation

Surveys Are Excellent for Testing Hypotheses

Good research is often mobilized by a hypothesis. A good hypothesis is something that is testable and whose proof or disproof has important implications. Suppose you are trying to determine what factors influence the form of payment consumers choose to use when shopping online. (This information would be useful to online retailers, credit card associations and issuers.)  To ask a revealing question on this topic, you need to

Typical debit card transaction machine, brande...
Image via Wikipedia

start with a good hypothesis. Some hypotheses might be: consumers believe debit cards pose a higher risk of fraud than credit cards; consumers tend to use the same card off line and online; consumers are more likely to use a credit card whose information they’ve already entered and stored at a favorite retailer than some other credit card.

All of those hypotheses can easily be tested with an appropriately worded question. And the answers will have important implications for retailers, card associations and issuers.

Trending and Tracking

Trending and tracking means gathering intrinsically useful information, potentially for the purpose of seeing how that information changes over time. You might survey consumers to measure how widespread concerns about global warming are. If you ask the same question of a similar audience repeatedly over time, you can tell how the sentiment is trending. You can measure the penetration of a consumer product, and how it has trended over time, to deduce how big an opportunity that product presents in the future. Sometimes such data is used as an input into revenue models and forecasts.  Consider how the data will be used, though. Asking consumers how many books they buy in a year could provide data that is useful for building a revenue forecast for a book retailer.  But do consumers prefer to buy books online, at big chain stores, or in specialty stores? That information might be interesting, but probably less useful.

Segmentation Can Make Data More Actionable

Segmentation is used to divide respondents into segments to make it easier to draw actionable implications from the data. Finding that 10 percent of consumers would be interested in pig-leather apparel is one thing. Finding that 30 percent of urban consumers ages 25 to 34 have that interest, is information an apparel marketer can act on more readily. Knowing that online retailers spend about 20 percent of their online revenue on Web site operations is one thing. But knowing that the largest retailers spend just 11 percent of revenues on site operations, while smaller retailers spend 39 percent of revenues on operations, provides a more meaningful basis for benchmarking.

To segment data, you need to have a large enough sample size that you can meaningfully break up the data into groups that are still large enough to be statistically significant. And you need to include segmentation questions. In the pig-leather example, the segmentation questions are age and whether the respondent lives in an urban or suburban area. The online retailer data is segmented by revenues. Designing effective segmentation questions sometimes depends on having good hypothesis about what dimensions will significantly distinguish one segment from another. It may be, for an example, that income level correlates less with interest in pig leather than an urban domicile.

Common Mistakes

It’s not uncommon to get survey data back and find that it’s interesting but not useful. Generally, that’s because the design of the survey did not follow these rules:

  1. Devise clear, testable hypotheses with important implications.
  2. Survey the right audience: customers for marketing; peers for benchmarking
  3. When the sample size permits, include useful segmentation questions.

Some people are tempted to use a survey instrument as a way to learn about a market by gathering a lot of rudimentary data about that market. This is generally a mistake: most of that data will never get used. There are more cost effective ways of getting up to speed on a market than commissioning a survey about it.

Your Thoughts?

Do you have other best practices to share? Would you like to disagree with my on any of the above? I welcome your comments.

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